CONTEXT:  A very well put together and clearly well researched opinion piece promoting RWD as the basis for COVID decision making in the US.  Interesting highlight of what is termed “robust” data (number of COVID related deaths) and “messy” data (number of infections).  Also of note is the juxtaposition of decisions about keeping loved ones from dying relatives compared to the cavalier approach to re-opening schools based on “predictive” models that appear to only be predictive about how bad the outcome will be.  The piece’s conclusion to utilise publicly available data with simple analyses seems so obvious that tit should not need saying.  So why exactly are we not doing that?

IMPACT:  High

READ TIME:  6 mins


Quality Level Mean [1 – 10]:  9

1. “We used publicly available data collected by the CDC from Michigan and Minnesota, two states in the news throughout March and April due to their case surges, to examine claims that children were getting sicker due to variants and that cases and hospitalizations were rising in children more than in other ages.” 

2. “After nine months of observing school closures and reopenings, we identified two factors that appear to be influencing decision-makers toward making less rational, less effective school-reopening policies: overreliance on alarming “predictive” models that are not actually predictive, and media reports based on data that are poorly analyzed and then manipulated to fit preconceived negative narratives.” 

3. “Inaccurate models converging with media narratives create the second factor skewing Covid-19 school reopening policies: the related ideas that variants of SARS-CoV-2 are causing children to be sicker than previous strains, that cases and hospitalizations are increasing in children more than in older people, and that these phenomena are driving new surges across ages.” 

4. “Michigan and Minnesota, which both have a high prevalence of the B.1.1.7 variant, had large surges in cases between March and early April, but showed no increase in severe illness (represented by hospitalizations) among children in these states (Figure 1).” 

5. “As we demonstrated by following these simple recommendations, there was no surge in hospitalizations among school children, and cases in young people in Michigan and Minnesota were occurring at the same proportion, or slightly less often, than in other age groups.” 

Source URL: https://www.statnews.com/2021/04/23/use-real-world-data-not-predictions-inform-school-opening-decisions/