Editorial created from work on my original Post on my Medium “Centaurs will take over every job of the future“
The article below is an attempt to walk you through common fears of AI and automation threatening pretty much every job. I argue yes, almost every job is being disrupted, but this is no different than every other major leap. Jobs will get better, more productive, and hopefully more fulfilling by focusing our efforts on what we do best.
Impact: there are obvious conclusions to how AI might impact regulation, or how AI could help in production of new healthcare solutions. Check back in the future for the rest of the series as we at RWR News work on other technical review treats.
Better sit for this one, possibly a 20 minute read!
FACT:
The future is dim. As a human, you will not have a job.
Many believe top chess players, representing the peak of human problem solving abilities, already started to “quit chess because of AI” in the 90’s. It doesn’t take much to see that the human it obsolete.
99% chance this will happen within 10 years.
And actually,…
this future of your work is really freaking cool
True your job may not be effectively done by a human anymore… but you will still be in the job! [NO, not as a borg].
In fact; you (+) an AI is more effective than you OR an AI alone.
Not only has this been tested back in the late 90’s with those expiring chessmasters that supposedly quit after AI started to win; it is easy to conceptualize why this combination of AI plus human is better than AI or human once you start thinking about what humans and AI are great at.
In other words, fear is misleading and disguising the future where you are empowered, instead of out competed.
Let’s step back to chess in 90s, where fear accelerated.
In 1997 Deep Blue defeated Gary Kasparov. AI beat one of human’s strongest chess players of all time. You might know this story.
However, did you know that Gary demanded a rematch? IBM said ‘no’, and in 1998 Gary created ‘Centaur Chess” because he was denied his rematch. The game rules comprised of two teams of people and AI on either side. Half human, half AI with the computers, masters of tactics, and the humans as masters of strategy. What did this experiment reveal?
Weak human + machine + better process was superior to a strong computer alone and, more remarkably, superior to a strong human + machine + inferior process.
-Gary Kaspoarov
The winners of the tournament were two amateur humans, and three weak computers.
Surprisingly and very unexpected but very clear: you plus a weak AI with good process can likely STOMP the strongest human competitors paired with top computers and poor process. And you would definitely win even against the best in your field by themselves or the best AI by iteself.
Let that sync in.
But still, why is it this way? You can dive more into explanation involving Doug Engelbart at https://jods.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/issue3-case/branch/2/1
Or, you can accept that there are many varieties of intelligence. In those intelligences other than what a computer is great for, our God-given brains are still far superior, far more amazing than we can imagine. Feelings, intention, self awareness, empathy, creativity, and our ability to solve wicked problems in contextual situations are some of the thinking abilities that makes us masters of strategy and accomplishment in ways we likely never even partially tap into. Like an underlining possibly hidden statement in Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, and JoDS “How to become a centaur” puts it:
AIs are best at choosing answers. Humans are best at choosing questions.
The why? How? And What If? Are left for the humans.
So, what would happen with our brains if they were fully unleashed?
What does unleashing your AI empowerment mean? What does the future look like for your job?
Well, how does an IRONMAN version of YOU (you now have ironman assistance AI) NOT completely destroy just YOU at your job?
Considering the answer, is it not inevitable that this upgrade will happen to everyone!?
Yes, logically. But does this mean there are less jobs?
No.
Did the creation of the car mean the end for horses? Lightbulb the end of candle industry? Think about what actually happens when one part of one industry becomes much more effective: new industries, services, and products sprout up like grass after a rain.
Strictly speaking economics, assuming we never grant AI authority over our lives: we as humans are needy, and have a lot of aspirations for things that are yet to exist. Our future is incredibly bright. You might say infinite. Even with AI and the greatest output you can possibly imagine: there are galaxies of literal and figurative work to be discovered. When we make one thing 1000x better, we find 10,000 more things to advance on.
What does it look like in practical purposes?
Let us look at one profession as an example. Something with extreme consequence. Lawyers.
That should likely cheer you up unless you are a lawyer; everyone ‘despises’ lawyers. At least there is silver lining if we only validate AI will eliminate their jobs ;).
Consider how the two lives of a lawyer with and without AI may differ.
OK, so it is not the best ‘vision’ for what it might look like, but we did focus on important aspects. A lawyer, super-powered from AI, can now do a lot more work. This means:
1) More competitive landscape (great for clients)
2) Lawyers with good process now earn more for same input of work (great for lawyers)
3) Lawyers can focus on higher-level drafting and non-repetitive cognitive work (great for the lawyer’s soul)
4) Legal system becomes more refined (great for government and society as whole, industry evolves)
But what would lawyers think? How would the market respond?
If you weren’t sure of the power of AI for legal, then this article from law.com about lawyers trying to put up walls to stop it might sway you into understanding they are actually scared: https://at.law.com/rhT6xU?cmp=share_twitter
So why are they scared? What will happen?
Consider other resistant industries. Airbnb, Uber, Craigslist, Amazon, Paypal: giants are created from laggard industries refusing to incrementally improve for the better of the customer.
Legal is no exception.
Their resistance from fear of adoption is actually creating the market opportunity that will could change it over night.
You might be thinking, “exactly, lawyers are scared they will lose their jobs will be replaced!!!”
Yes and no.
No, artificial intelligence will not replace lawyers in their job. Real intelligence will.
Like chessmaster Gary who changed chess completely after he saw centaurs the next level of play, the best lawyers will also thrive as centaurs. Those that want to cash in on hours spent ‘researching’ and doing very costly, very repetitive, noncognative (AI type) work will disappear almost over night (my guess by 2030). The fat will be cut, so to speak, and those truly passionate about law and advancing the industry forward to a definitive benefit of all will take over this new landscape. Just like Uber, Airbnb, Amazon and many more.
So only the few, best survive?
Recall from the chess experiments; it wasn’t the best that survived, just the ones that wanted it more and made better processes. In other words, those that adopt first, and iterate their process even if they have inferior people and AI will quickly take over everyone else trying to do AI, humans, or both with a bad integration process (i.e., those with laggard lawyers resisting instead of participating in the change).
The combination of human + AI was termed “centaur” by Gary in 1998. Let’s use that term from now on.
So how might AI + Lawyer Centaur look like anyway? Is it practical?
This structure eliminates tactical blunders and emphasizes strategic prowess of human lawyers. What if all law practices this way? Lawyers focusing purely on the strategy, while judges and juries focusing on core issues presented.
And the client; would she want her next lawyers paying a clerk or someone internally 30+ hrs on work that could be done with a click of the button by a bot? Would she choose the law firm without AI riddled with human error and missing critical evidence or the ‘centaur lawyer’ with maximized field of vision at the start?
Likely, no. She wants the most, for least, like every consumer.
But will lawyers let this happen since they are so resistant?
Maybe they won’t let it happen, but could they stop it? It’s hard to believe that even with all the legal force in the world that the spirit of those striving for more won’t pull the AI forward, while the market responds with overwhelming demand.
It is also hard to believe that those empowered with the AI won’t create deeper, strong, creative services and therefor expand the legal market to areas and sizes never seen. Personalized centaur for filing lawsuits (already seen one startup just release this), checking regulations (plenty of companies in the space), filing ALL your documentations (e-filings are becoming common language); everything you imagine a billionaire has in terms of legal service but WAY better and much less cost.
Could you imagine what new services we don’t even know about yet? Hungry lawyers have a lot of space to invent once they are freed from soul sucking, repeat work bondage. Hungry lawyers.
And what if only the most funded adopt? This is a critical question with dangerous results. Like many other industries, we have to think about what happens when only a few become ‘weaponized’ in a market.
Justice at risk:
Think about government lawyers (public defenders). If they don’t adopt then justice could be at risk entirely. Public defenders will have Model T while the largest criminals and bad actors in society have Teslas in legal weaponized terms. Government workers need legal AI assistance, and legislation and rights need determined as soon as possible. Otherwise, without action and careful adoption, keeping in mind what we’ve explored here; law will erode.
Does it apply elsewhere? Almost every field.
Think about it. Take for instance, instead of contract CTOs we could have contract positions for centaurs in any position. Combinations of AI and executives like ‘moneyball’ executive teams going far beyond expectations. This feels like a Futurama episode.
And better yet, for the stockholders and public, what if the use of the AI could FORCE transparency of bias (racial, gender, greed, corruption, negligence) in their decisions from the results of the AI working with the executives?
Possibly scary thought for anyone making a lot of money in sensitive situations behind closed doors. You might assume they will do everything they can to stop it,.. but keep in mind:
1) there are hungry people that will absolutely use any tool they can to overthrow the current regimes and change any industry
2) resistance only makes a greater opportunity for something completely disruptive to happen
But what about jobs that are less cognitive? Are they at risk of being completely replaced?
Recall that two amateurs with 3 mediocre inferior AIs beat the masters with top computers. The game has channgggged! Where you may have been siloed with only one job function; the many skills, ideas, experiences you have are now unleashed. With changing markets, you may find that the average middle class job in the future is not manufacturing, or even one service, but splitting your day among several unique, cognitively-enhancing jobs that give you greater fulfillment and possibly earn a lot more.
So you are worth more, and have more momentum and flexibility in your job. Too good to be true?
Maybe. Maybe the whole world will be run off one Australian with really, really good process. Or, maybe that extra job you’ve been wishing you could do is now feasible. With AI you are at the level with seniors of 10+yrs experience and way more educational background. Hobby, part time job, job shift: everything is reset and great opportunity is at your fingertips.
What about doctors? Teachers? How about politicians, lawmakers, judges? Accountants? Are their years of work wasted? Don’t they deserve to be kept safe?
It’s not about being kept safe in your career investments, it’s about what will happen. Those that want to continue to work hard and adopt to become better will make more, have more freedom, and be more effective in their industry.
Further, the average person can now compete anew, creating even more competitive landscape. The bottom 10% will surely lose their job: but maybe a hard working mechanic or farmer that wants to be a doctor can compete now with AI and, for the health of the market, that bottom 10% needs shoved out. And maybe that 10% that is shoved out really wanted to be something else but they didn’t feel like they could compete in those fields, but now they can. Those that are the most invested to high paying, high margin, high information positions with repetitive noncognative tasks have the most to lose.
And we can set aside small violins for them if it helps.
But for the majority (99%?) of everyone else we should not be fooled: the AI (centaur) revolution shakes everything back up close to the starting position. It evens the playing ground. Everyone has a chance to change industries, and leap ahead of those that are being reluctant to adopt.
Imagine; maybe you are actually the best lawyer, doctor, artist; you are just missing the AI to BECOME the SUPERHUMAN (centaur thing) you WERE ALWAYS SUPPOSED TO BE.
Or… maybe you prefer to focus on a bleak future.
For me, I’m focusing on the fact that top chess players did not actually decide to quit chess in the 90’s, but instead more entered and have been using AI to train. I’m focused on spotting the future where we are solving big problems. Creating more opportunity for everyone through their best self. Rapidly discovering more fair, just, creative, happy, wise, transparent, honest, safe, corrective future.
Like I said, your job will be done by an automated bot in 10 year. And it’s because a centaur you are a part of changed the game for good.